Arlington and the country appear to be returning to normal seasonal trends in apartment rents, according to new data, after a roller-coaster ride that began with the onset of the pandemic nearly two years ago.
Average apartment rental rates in Arlington fell 0.4% from December to January, compared to a national increase of 0.2%, according to data released Jan. 26 by Apartment List.
The average rental rate in Arlington for the month was $1,980 for a one-bedroom unit and $2,396 for a two-bedroom unit.
More than 40 of the country’s largest urban areas saw rents fall in January, while only five saw increases of more than 1%. This may be a sign that the markets are stabilizing, as the rental market is traditionally more inactive during the winter months.
“Even though month-over-month growth has returned to positive territory, [it] has cooled significantly further from last year’s peak,” noted Apartment List analysts Chris Salvati, Igor Popov, Rob Warnock and Lilla Szini.
“Year-over-year rent growth is currently at a record 17.8%, but over the past four months rents have only increased by 0.9% overall,” analysts noted. “Much of this cooldown is likely related to seasonal factors; it remains to be seen whether the rapid growth in rents will return as moving activity picks up in the spring and summer.
(For complete data, see the website at https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data.)
While Arlington’s rental market fell from December to January, it remains up 16.7% year over year and above pre-pandemic levels.
For the 12 months ending in September, New York City saw the largest increase in rental rates, up 33.5%. This offset the significant declines that occurred during the early days of the pandemic and subsequent government shutdowns; the Big Apple is now up 4.4% from pre-pandemic levels.
Tampa (31.4%), Scottsdale, Arizona (31.1%) and Orlando (30.1%) are not far behind New York in terms of year-over-year increases, each seeing little downward pressure on rents during the early stages of the pandemic. . As a result, the average apartment rental rate in Tampa is now about 35% higher than it was before the COVID crisis began.
None of the 100 largest urban markets posted a year-over-year decline in January, but Oakland saw the smallest increase, at 0.5%. Detroit was second from bottom at 2.6%.
Where is the rental market headed? “Rent growth is likely to resume in the coming months, although it remains unclear how much we should expect rents to increase in the coming year,” analysts said. from Apartment List.
January’s national apartment vacancy rate of 4.4%, though historically low, marks the fifth straight month of increases since the rate hit a low of 3.8% last August.
“While the recent increase in vacancy has been modest and gradual, it represents a significant inflection point, signaling that tensions in the rental market are finally beginning to ease,” the analysts noted. “The vacancy situation remains historically tight, but the gradual easing in recent months has likely contributed to slower rental growth.”
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